interest rate futures expiring in December 2022 are the widest since November 2020 in favour of the latter, and BofA Securities' monthly survey showed investors expecting around 1.5 Fed rate hikes in 2022.īy the second half of 2022, "the Fed could be hiking rates and this could make it difficult for the euro to claw back much ground versus the dollar," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank. Some of those bets may melt away after Lagarde's comments.īut in derivatives markets too, investors are positioned for euro strength, with around $7 billion of options bunched around the $1.15 level for end-November expiry. Investors nevertheless seem unprepared for euro weakness, betting possibly that the Fed's liftoff will sweep along others.ĭata shows hedge funds turned "long" the euro in the latest week, with a $1.4 billion shift in its favour. equivalents by the biggest margin in over a year (.CESI). Mark Haefele, UBS Global Wealth Management's CIO, expects the greenback to strengthen broadly next year, leaving the euro valued at $1.10 by end-2022.įor Europe, a 2022 rate hike always seemed a tall order despite inflation running above the ECB's 2% target, while a recent spike in COVID-19 cases risks setting back growth.Įconomic surprise indexes compiled by Citi show European data lagging their U.S. economy retail sales beat forecasts in October despite higher inflation. Much euro bearishness is premised on expectations that the Fed will have to apply the brakes to a racing U.S. Puts and calls allow holders to sell or buy respectively.Įxpectations even now are for 12.5 bps of ECB tightening next year, down from 20 bps priced in by investors last week. Three-month euro risk reversals - a gauge of demand for options on a currency rising or falling - show the premium for "calls" at the lowest since May 2020 versus "puts". These imply more swings in the currency, reflecting a rise in risk premiums. 16 meeting - have surged a whole percentage point in the past 24 hours. One-month contracts for implied euro/dollar volatility - now encompassing the ECB's Dec. įurther near-term weakness is being priced in.ĭerivatives markets, where traders often put on directional bets, indicate bearishness has grown in the past two sessions. It is even hovering near 2015 lows against the Swiss franc, despite Swiss interest rates being lower than the ECB's.
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Against the pound it is holding near levels not seen since the start of the pandemic, while compared to the Australian dollar it is nearing March lows. The single currency is at a 16-month low versus the dollar of around $1.13. "Rallies in the euro have been sold resolutely since September and investors are not abandoning this tactic." Call 0800 327 637 for any further assistance."With the ECB still insisting that interest rates won't go up next year, there is not much point in trying to catch a falling knife," Societe Generale strategist Kenneth Broux said. Shop Victorinox knives & products, like Victorinox swiss army knives, steak knives & more. The delivery company in your area will call you to arrange a delivery time. The expected delivery date of your item will be displayed during checkout after you submit your address.
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